Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 225.221202 271.965819 329.153753 405.345397 505.863069 6.363829e+02 8.228636e+02
2025-08-24 165.094092 216.846597 287.788869 395.490935 561.245032 8.185802e+02 1.275306e+03
2025-08-31 131.693224 182.795591 258.417762 384.316092 601.693542 9.909048e+02 1.825237e+03
2025-09-07 119.317418 174.120420 261.163295 419.504466 726.491002 1.366789e+03 3.077522e+03
2025-09-14 104.912842 158.721361 248.727945 423.821521 795.818526 1.677317e+03 4.556912e+03
2025-09-21 95.333850 149.004342 243.140087 438.202524 891.360257 2.115849e+03 7.130073e+03
2025-09-28 85.520168 137.059614 230.859305 435.268192 946.450964 2.494165e+03 1.034747e+04
2025-10-05 82.173471 135.838020 238.119522 475.861486 1131.390859 3.458865e+03 1.998173e+04
2025-10-12 78.354186 133.046986 241.596588 508.990333 1316.779259 4.678478e+03 3.984003e+04
2025-10-19 74.204327 128.942329 241.476150 533.382348 1492.679994 6.158707e+03 8.267101e+04
2025-10-26 69.822587 123.728218 237.946266 547.911620 1647.022206 7.856691e+03 1.793892e+05
2025-11-02 65.374977 117.778086 231.701333 553.203180 1773.179259 9.713612e+03 4.135225e+05
2025-11-09 60.147599 109.813875 220.061284 541.378920 1832.498598 1.136533e+04 9.768477e+05
2025-11-16 55.357111 102.251662 208.271845 526.265226 1872.389927 1.308492e+04 2.706111e+06
2025-11-23 51.098773 95.358067 197.055460 510.014103 1899.357564 1.488609e+04 9.918963e+06
2025-11-30 50.466205 96.296058 205.403915 560.910094 2321.328574 2.423710e+04 NaN
2025-12-07 47.880910 92.550895 201.129726 567.186655 2506.572383 3.184345e+04 NaN
2025-12-14 46.099208 90.436750 200.823645 588.159345 2814.822693 4.635999e+04 NaN
2025-12-21 43.561204 86.290824 194.369264 583.873348 2952.124150 5.908547e+04 NaN
2025-12-28 43.304143 87.507755 203.031353 643.450714 3669.593525 1.190236e+05 NaN
2026-01-04 42.601050 87.561257 208.415701 692.517955 4415.653398 2.447447e+05 NaN
2026-01-11 41.529268 86.579800 210.586268 728.891232 5139.223068 5.113639e+05 NaN
2026-01-18 40.148410 84.671416 209.625588 750.653873 5773.443173 1.066032e+06 NaN